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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.