A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
