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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd