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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still